ONCE again, India is besieged by drought. More than 50 million people in the
west and centre of the country are short of water, and thousands of cattle have
died. The drought has not led to famine, thanks to a comfortable grain reserve
of 26 million tonnes鈥�11 million tonnes more than would be required in a
normal year. But this may be the last time India can ride over a crisis of these
proportions. Future droughts may well lead to famine, for the frontline
agricultural states of Punjab and Haryana in the northwest鈥攌nown as the
country鈥檚 food basket鈥攁re on the edge of a grave environmental crisis.
Punjab and Haryana were at the forefront of the Green Revolution in the late
1960s and early 1970s, in which farm machinery, pesticides and fertilisers,
irrigation and the replacement of traditional crops with high-yielding varieties
dramatically increased productivity. The two states together now provide 80 per
cent of the country鈥檚 food surplus.
But the land is increasingly unable to support this burden of intensive
agriculture. Crop yields鈥攁nd water resources鈥攁re declining
alarmingly, and some parts are close to becoming barren. Many farmers are
heavily in debt from their investments in new equipment and reliance on
chemicals, and rural unemployment is increasing. These are ominous signs of a
deteriorating farm economy.
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One of the major causes of this crisis was the introduction to Punjab and
Haryana of rice, not a traditional crop in these arid states. Irrigation made
growing rice possible, and it was introduced as a cash crop and cultivated
alongside wheat. Now, however, it has begun to suck the land dry. Excessive
pumping during the rice-growing season has led to a drop in the groundwater
table of an average of half a metre a year. In some areas, levels have fallen
well below the reach of the deep tube wells used by farmers, or the water has
become saline.
Other intensive farming practices, particularly with wheat and rice, have
virtually mined nutrients from the soil. When fertilisers are added to a crop, a
plant absorbs not only the extra nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium from the
fertiliser, but also proportionately increased levels of micronutrients from the
soil, including zinc, iron and copper. Over time鈥攁bout 10 years in this
case鈥攖he soil becomes deficient in these micronutrients. Lack of them also
inhibits a plant鈥檚 capacity to absorb nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium.
Overkill
So, to make up for the shortfall and to prevent crop yields from dropping,
farmers have had to apply ever-increasing quantities of conventional
fertilisers. Thus, it is becoming increasingly difficult for farmers in Punjab
and Haryana to make a profit, and much of the soil in the region is seriously
lacking in micronutrients.
The heavy use of fertilisers has had another effect: excess nitrates have
leached into groundwater. In and around the wheat belt of Ludhiana, in the heart
of Punjab, contamination of groundwater with nitrates has increased
dramatically.
The cultivable lands have become sick through over-application of chemicals,
and yet the government is still encouraging farmers to apply more of them. This
is a hopelessly short-term solution.
The government is pushing for all-out industrial growth, and this is true in
the agricultural sector as much as any other. The emphasis is on new
agribusiness enterprises such as sugar production. But these are just as
intensive as Green Revolution agriculture. I have long been saying that building
more sugar mills in Punjab is a bad idea, considering that the state is faced
with severe groundwater problems. Nor is its soil suitable for growing sugar
cane. Yet there are now 20 sugar mills in the state, compared with six a few
years ago, and the state is seeking approval for another 50.
Such enterprises are more political than agricultural, and they are gravely
detrimental. The economic benefits are lapped up by a few, while the long-term
fallout will affect millions of poor farmers.
Indeed, it seems that the farmers themselves are bearing the costs of the
Green Revolution. Debt in rural Punjab runs at 50 billion Indian
rupees鈥攕ome 拢745 million. More than 250 farmers there have committed
suicide in the past two years.
At some point soon, Punjab鈥檚 agricultural house of cards will collapse, and
when it does India鈥檚 grain harvest will fall drastically. Food security in India
is precariously balanced. With an increasing population and declining long-term
food prospects, I fear that this country is in danger of returning to the
pre-Green Revolution days of 鈥渟hip-to-mouth鈥� existence, when huge stocks of food
were imported to feed the hungry millions.
To prevent this, the government should stop relying so heavily on just two
states for the bulk of its grain supplies. Together, Punjab and Haryana have
produced 150 million tonnes of wheat and 100 million tonnes of rice every year
since the early 1970s. But these yields are possible only with a dependency on
chemicals. To break this cycle, the government should encourage farmers in these
two states to grow alternative, less intensively farmed crops such as sorghum
and millet, and develop wheat and rice production elsewhere in India. To stick
with the status quo will invite environmental and social disaster.