The death toll in the Darfur region of Sudan in 2005 was an order of magnitude greater than that estimated by the US State Department, according to a new estimate of the extent of the genocide
The crisis of death and displacement in western Sudan began in February of 2003 and soon engulfed all three states of North, West, and South Darfur.
The new analysis finds that hundreds of thousands of people have died in the conflict, rather than the earlier reports of tens of thousands.
Advertisement
John Hagan, at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois, and Alberto Palloni at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, both in the US, made the new estimate from the best available surveys conducted in camps of 鈥渋nternally displaced persons鈥� in West Darfur.
Crude mortality
Earlier estimates have been made for restricted areas and time periods, and the State Department estimate, especially, was error prone for several reasons, say the authors.
The previous estimate was based on unspecified figures for estimating 鈥渃rude mortality rates鈥� (number of deaths per 100 people per year) and at-risk populations. And it neglected to take into account violent death occurring before refugees entered the displacement camps, Hagan and Palloni say.
Also, the estimate made a distinction between 鈥渘ormal鈥� deaths it would expect to find in settled populations, and those it considered 鈥渆xcessive鈥�. But deaths in displacement camps do not occur at the same lower rate as those in settled populations, the pair argue.
Disaster zone
The uncertainty over how many people have died in the region results from difficulties inherent in surveying a war-torn region in Africa, as well as assumptions made by the agencies trying to generate estimates, the researchers say.
鈥淎s might happen in a natural disaster, there is no way to get an accurate body count; estimates must rely on interviews. Surveys from displacement camp samples must be substituted for unavailable population-based census data,鈥� the researcher write.
鈥淎nd extrapolating from limited samples to an entire population at risk is problematic,鈥� they add. Furthermore, 25 years of famine and war has reconfigured nuclear families in the region, making 鈥渟ampling units鈥� in surveys problematic.
Sobering numbers
Hagan and Palloni used UN refugee camp counts to estimate the 鈥渁t risk鈥� population of West Darfur, and World 午夜福利1000集合 Organization and M茅dicins Sans Fronti猫res surveys to obtain direct and indirect monthly estimates of CMRs in West Darfur.
鈥淲e conservatively estimate 19 months [between early 2004 and mid 2005] of mortality in West Darfur as 49,288, with a range from 40,850 to 67,598,鈥� the researchers report.
They then extended their estimate to 31 months, up to May 2006, and applied the same ratio of death to displacement across North and South Darfur. The range then becomes 170,000 to 255,000 deaths.
鈥淚t is likely that the number of deaths for this conflict in Greater Darfur is higher than 200,000 individuals, and it is possible that the death toll is much higher,鈥� say Hagan and Palloni.
Journal reference: Science (vol 313, p 1578)
