The US President鈥檚 long-awaited alternative to the Kyoto Protocol proposes no cuts in US emissions of greenhouse gases. The plan to gradually restrict, but not reduce, emissions may undermine efforts to get other nations to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, British officials believe.
President Bush first promised an alternative to the Kyoto Protocol in March 2001, as he announced that the US would pull out of the global treaty aimed at cutting emissions and slowing global warming.
The administration鈥檚 policy finally emerged in six pages of a 440-page economic report issued by the White House Council of Economic Advisers on Wednesday. 鈥淲e need to recognise that it makes sense to discuss slowing emissions growth before trying to stop and eventually reverse it,鈥� the report said. This approach would prevent any 鈥渟hock鈥� to the US economy.
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Critics point out that this statement comes five years after the US initially agreed the Kyoto Protocol, which promised emissions cuts. And 10 years after it signed to Climate Change Convention, which pledged it to stabilising emissions during the 1990s. In fact, US emissions rose 13 per cent during the decade.
Economic growth
The White House report suggests that the US government might one day set national emissions targets that are tied to economic growth. Thus it might require fewer greenhouse gases to be emitted for every dollar of GDP.
But analysts in Washington were not impressed. Vicki Arroyo Cochran of the Pew Foundation on Global Climate Change said: 鈥淲e have to have something that results in true reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.鈥�
Next week Bush visits Japanese ministers, who are believed to be wavering on whether to ratify the Protocol formally and bring its measures into force. At a meeting in Marrakech in November 2001, the Japanese government agreed with other nations that this should be done. But repeated reports from Tokyo say ministers may not ratify if there is no sign of action from the US.
The other major waverer, according to UK government sources, is Russia. Without both countries formally ratifying the treaty, the protocol could not come into force. The source told New Scientist: 鈥淲e will be spending the next few months trying hard to make sure that Japan and Russia stay on board.鈥�