CHEAP oil has been the driving force behind the phenomenal economic growth of the past century, at least in the west. Oil is the lifeblood of the modern world. If we were to remove it tomorrow, it is no exaggeration to say that civilisation would collapse.
But the days of abundant, easy-to-extract oil are numbered. It鈥檚 a mantra we鈥檝e all heard before. Oil production is poised to enter terminal decline: if 鈥減eak oil鈥� hasn鈥檛 already arrived, it is imminent.
Make no mistake, peak oil is a threat to our way of life. However much we despair at the long-term consequences of pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, the prospect of an oil crisis is just as bad, if not worse, and more immediate.
Advertisement
For that reason, the fact that the earth is still dripping with oil is something of a blessing. Conventional oil 鈥� liquid hydrocarbons trapped deep underground 鈥� may be running short, but reserves like this are a drop in the ocean. Other sources of oil, including tar sands and oil shales, contain about nine times as much oil as we have consumed so far.
Energy companies are already digging for these unconventional resources, driven by our collective thirst (yes, that means you) for oil. Tar sands and the like will soon make a significant contribution to the global oil supply (see 鈥淪craping the bottom of the barrel鈥�). Unfortunately, they are more polluting and more expensive to extract than conventional oil, which is why most of them are still in the ground.
So unconventional oil is both an opportunity and a threat. It could allow us to complacently carry on as normal, delaying the hard choices we have to make, but all the while pushing us ever deeper into climate crisis. Managed properly, however, unconventional oil could be used to smooth out peak oil and make a gentler transition to a post-oil economy.
鈥淯nconventional oil could be used to smooth out 鈥榩eak oil鈥� and ease the transition to a post-oil economy鈥�
Option two won鈥檛 happen by default. It will require a massive new push for alternatives to fossil fuels. We already know what we need: renewable electricity, a revamped grid and a network of charging stations to power the next generation of electric cars. That鈥檚 the bare minimum. In all likelihood, we鈥檒l need carbon capture and storage, too, to mop up the emissions from that dirty unconventional oil.
All of this costs money 鈥� but the source is staring us in the face. Now, more than ever, we need a universal carbon tax which taxes fossil fuels at source according to how polluting they are. Vested interests don鈥檛 like this idea, but let鈥檚 not forget that oil companies turn vast profits: Exxon Mobil alone made $45 billion in 2008. In a sane world, we would surely find a way to divert some of this money to solve the dilemma that oil itself has created. The question is, do we live in a sane world?