Early in the new year, if not sooner, the world will set a most unwelcome record. Global oil consumption barrels per day for the first time 鈥� and keep climbing.
To have any chance of limiting warming to 1.5掳C, greenhouse gas emissions need to start falling now, and fast, the latest UN climate report warned in October. But emissions are still increasing. They rose 3 per cent in 2018 and look set to keep rising in 2019.
Sure, the amount of renewable energy we produce is growing fast. But global demand for energy is growing faster. Just a demand in 2017 was met by renewables, according to the International Energy Agency, the body predicting the oil-consumption milestone.
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In other words, renewables need to grow much faster just to halt the growth in fossil fuels, let alone displace them. Such a step change requires either a massive rise in investment in renewables, or the imposition of a high price on carbon to deter fossil fuel use. Neither is .
As emissions keep growing, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere will rise ever faster, causing warming to accelerate. Unsurprisingly, 2019 is set to be one of the warmest years on record, perhaps even the warmest.
Whether this record is set will depend on the strength of the El Ni帽o climate phenomenon that is forecast to develop in the next few months. This sees warm water spread across the surface of the Pacific Ocean, temporarily boosting global temperatures.
A strong El Ni帽o made ; 2017 and 2018 were slightly cooler because there was no El Ni帽o. However, the 2019 El Ni帽o isn鈥檛 forecast to be as strong or to last as long as the 2016 one, so the year ahead might not quite top the charts.
The coming year may also see atmospheric CO2 levels hit a new milestone. The is on track to be a little above 407 parts per million. In recent years, the level has been rising by 2 ppm in normal years and 3 ppm in El Ni帽o years, when widespread droughts and wildfires increase CO2 levels.
Depending on what a 2019 El Ni帽o has in store, we could see the annual mean level in CO2 approach or exceed 410 ppm.
This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淣ews Preview 2019: Climate alarms ring louder鈥�
