ALTHOUGH the UK and many other countries are still on the upward curve in terms of covid-19 cases and deaths, in scientific circles, thoughts are already turned towards how we can end the lockdown and return to a semblance of normality.
It is a crucial endeavour, but it isn鈥檛 a simple one by any means. The world can鈥檛 remain in lockdown, yet millions and millions of people remain very vulnerable to the coronavirus. Added to this, a possible vaccine is a long way off, if indeed we ever get one that is useful. So how do we get out of the current situation and resume our former day-to-day lives?
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As we report, there are essentially three ways of achieving this. None of them is risk-free or cheap, and all will require life-and-death decisions: essentially, who will bear the brunt of a near-inevitable second wave of infections? Another lockdown may well have to be put in place if case numbers start to shoot up again.
The execution of such a strategy is weeks away in the UK, but the decision on which method to pursue needs to be made now, so that adequate preparations can be made. It also needs to be communicated expertly and well in advance 鈥� especially the part about the possibility of having to reimpose restrictions if a second wave of infections takes hold.
鈥淭he execution of a strategy to end lockdown is weeks away, but the decision on how to do it needs to be made now鈥�
There is currently no globally agreed exit strategy. Individual countries are largely going it alone. That isn鈥檛 wrong, because the situation varies from place to place, but some form of global cooperation will be needed: for example, to allow travel and trade to resume.
Meanwhile, the global situation is about to change in ways we can鈥檛 predict as the virus takes hold in poorer countries. As we explore on page 8, low-income economy countries will face different challenges from those seen in the relatively rich countries hit worst so far. To take one example, Uganda has 0.1 intensive care unit beds per 100,000 people compared with 34.7 in the US. In other nations, slums and refugee camps, where isolation is well-nigh impossible, are a big concern. The full impact of this pandemic has yet to emerge.
