AS THE coronavirus began spreading through Europe in the spring, many scientists warned that worse could come in winter. Now, it seems they were right. The continent鈥檚 wave of second lockdowns (see 鈥淓urope鈥檚 second wave of coronavirus is starting to eclipse the first鈥�) has brought gloom, anger, fear and, in some countries, protests. In the UK, the prime minister, Boris Johnson, has tried to offer his citizens some hope, telling them that everything will look much cheerier come 2021.
Such offerings of hope should be treated with caution. Perhaps things will be better when spring returns to the northern hemisphere. But it isn鈥檛 immediately clear why that should be the case.
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It is possible that by then we will have a stopgap therapy to create immunity without a vaccine, but as Graham Lawton writes, the results are still too early to equate to a panacea. An actual vaccine may become available, but if so it will only be available to some at first. It may also fail to deliver on any number of other counts, for example, requiring repeated booster injections.
A vaccine, as we have said before in these pages, was never going to be a quick or easy way out. Meanwhile, in the UK at least, testing for coronavirus and tracing the contacts of those who test positive is patchy at best.
So what next for those countries hardest hit? First, we need to stop thinking short term. The pandemic could well continue to significantly affect our lives for years. It would be wise to plan accordingly.
Second, we must admit that lockdowns are an indication of government failure and ultimately do nothing to stop the virus spreading if the pause isn鈥檛 used to build testing and contact tracing capacity. Brief, planned lockdowns, rather than the emergency ones being introduced now, could be a useful tool to keep infections under control, but really we need what we have always needed: working test, trace and isolate systems.
Finally, for test and trace systems to work, we need easy-to-access tests, quick results and to give those infected the financial and practical help they need to isolate. Such systems involve a huge economic hit 鈥� but then so do lockdowns. They also require something that is in short supply in places like the UK: trust in the government. Perhaps some realism from leaders, rather than offers of false hope, is a good place to start.
