Not a single case of measles has been recorded in Australia this year, which is a side benefit of the country shutting its borders to keep out the coronavirus. Measles rates have also plummeted in most other nations, but experts are worried that interrupted immunisation programmes during the crisis could lead to a massive resurgence.
Before the covid-19 pandemic, measles infections in Australia had been climbing in line with global trends. In 2019, the country recorded 284 cases 鈥� the most in five years. The majority were found in people who caught the virus overseas and brought it home.
Then, in March 2020, Australia introduced tight border controls to try to hold covid-19聽at bay. Citizens have since been unable to travel overseas, non-Australians have been barred from entrance and all returning Australians have had to quarantine upon arrival.
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During this time, there has been a sharp drop in measles infections in Australia, with just 25 cases recorded in 2020 and not a single case so far in 2021. The Australian government announced on 27 October that fully vaccinated Australian citizens and permanent residents will be allowed to leave the country from 1 November.
While the border has been closed, any existing measles virus in Australia has 鈥渂urnt itself out鈥� thanks to high vaccination coverage and no more has been able to come in, says at the University of Newcastle in Australia. More than 94 per cent of Australian children are immunised against the disease.
Measles rates also seem to have waned in most other countries, although this is partly due to underreporting by health systems that are busy dealing with covid-19, says , a member of the World 午夜福利1000集合 Organization鈥檚 working group on measles and rubella vaccines who is based in Melbourne.
are currently being recorded per month worldwide, compared with more than 100,000 per month during the peak of the last big measles outbreak in 2019.
In England, there were from January 2021 to September 2021, according to figures due to be released at the end of November, compared with 797 in the whole of 2019. In the US, there have been , down from 1282 in 2019.
This downwards trend has probably been driven by reduced travel and limited social contact during the pandemic, as well as the natural boom-and-bust cycle of measles, says Mulholland.
However, it may not last long since the pandemic has also interrupted many immunisation programmes around the world, with an estimated missing out on getting the measles vaccine in 2020. 鈥淲e鈥檝e got a big and growing immunity gap globally, so the conditions are perfect for a post-pandemic measles catastrophe,鈥� says Durrheim.
鈥淚t鈥檚 an accident waiting to happen,鈥� says Mulholland. Outbreaks of measles have already sprung up in countries like Pakistan, Nigeria, India, Afghanistan, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and these could spread to other nations as international travel rebounds, he says.
Measles is more contagious than any other known virus, with one infected person being able to infect 12 to 18 unprotected others. That means at least 95 per cent vaccine coverage is needed to achieve herd immunity to protect people who can鈥檛 be immunised, like children under the age of 1 or those with immune conditions.
The virus most commonly causes high fever, a cough, a runny nose and a rash, but it can also cause fatal pneumonia and brain swelling. An estimated 207,000 people 鈥� mostly children 鈥� died of measles in 2019.
Once Australia reopens its border from November, measles will probably start trickling back in, but any outbreaks should be relatively small thanks to high vaccine coverage, says Mulholland.
鈥淭he countries I鈥檓 worried about are places like Indonesia where there鈥檚 a wide-open immunity gap, so when the virus arrives, there could be a really large outbreak,鈥� he says.
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