
AUSTRALIAN comedian Hannah Gadsby recently came up with a : an “amoral algorithm cult”. She would know. It was Gadsby’s Netflix special Nanette that launched her to international fame. She chose to describe the streaming giant in those terms after an anonymous leak revealed details about the company’s system for rewarding creators based on algorithmic predictions of audience numbers.
When Netflix makes decisions about what shows to buy or cancel, their executives often cite “the algorithm”, an internal tool that crunches data about viewership – and is implicitly more objective than a person. Spoiler alert: the system isn’t objective, and its algorithms are making predictions based on skewed data. This isn’t just about Netflix though – it is one of many streaming video companies whose audience metrics are increasingly questionable.
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The current controversy starts after the release of Dave Chappelle’s latest comedy special The Closer. Instead of his usual social satire, Chappelle delivers what sounds like cable news commentary about how gay and transgender people are ruining everything. Not only did many viewers find it needlessly offensive, it simply wasn’t funny.
Amid demands that Netflix remove the special, a leak revealed that Chappelle’s previous special, Sticks & Stones, had, at $23.6 million, cost more than the current hit drama Squid Game. At the same time, the comedy special scored much lower than this series on a key audience metric called “adjusted view share” – a measure of return on investment, based on whether audience engagement justified the cost.
Netflix executives say they use algorithms and data to decide which shows to commission and how much to pay for them. But these latest revelations make it look like Netflix paid even more for The Closer, even though it knew that Chappelle’s previous special had underperformed. What kind of ass-backwards algorithm would recommend paying more for a show whose predecessor hadn’t lived up to expectations?
This question has opened a larger debate about how popularity is measured in the secretive world of streaming video. Netflix is famous for making barely any of its viewership numbers public, despite prominently displaying a “top 10” shows on a carousel on its front page. It isn’t alone. It is impossible to get solid viewership numbers on Amazon-produced shows or other streaming services like Disney+ and YouTube.
“When companies do reveal how they come up with audience metrics, the reasoning often sounds bonkers”
Even when companies do reveal how they come up with audience metrics, their reasoning often sounds bonkers. Netflix now releases viewership data for many popular shows, but includes users in that data even if they have only watched the first 2 minutes of a single episode.
I watched the first 2 minutes of Squid Game and I didn’t even make it through the opening credits, yet Netflix can now add my “view” to its audience data. Meanwhile, Facebook claims that a video has been viewed if a person watches it for 3 seconds or more. YouTube is a bit more generous, calling it a “view” if someone watches for 30 seconds after deliberately pushing play.
Though all these firms have data on how many people watch videos or series through to the end, they choose not to publicly measure success in those terms. And you can see why: in 2020, Netflix acknowledged that its 2-minute metric is “about 35 percent higher on average than the prior metric”, which was based on how many people “watched 70 percent of a single episode of a series”.
Netflix has just announced it will begin reporting viewership in terms of the total number of hours watched, too. Still, it is deeply problematic that executives apparently use flawed audience data to help determine what gets green-lit for production and how much money it receives. The algorithm is a shield that executives can use to claim objectivity when in fact they are making decisions exactly like gatekeepers did in the bad old days of the 20th century. They are selecting shows based on their own personal preferences.
Netflix execs are free to make decisions based on whatever they want, of course. The trouble is that they are using their algorithm to make it appear that it isn’t entirely their decision. They claim to be reflecting the desires of the masses as expressed in audience views. That makes it somehow our fault that bad shows get green-lit, while potentially good stuff never sees the light of day.
In reality, certain people in the US entertainment industry are cutting deals and promoting the things that they liked 20 years ago when Chappelle was fresh. They may have sparkly new algorithms, but they are still making decisions like it is 1982.
Annalee’s week
What I’m reading
by David Graeber and David Wengrow, a terrific, evidence-based history of humankind that will turn everything you know on its head.
What I’m watching
Three minutes of every show on Netflix, just to mess with its algorithm.
What I’m working on
Trying to reduce my water consumption by 15 per cent. The California governor has declared a state-wide drought emergency.
- This column appears monthly. Up next week: James Wong