ҹ1000

New Scientist’s predictions for the big science stories of 2022

From a crucial biodiversity meeting to dozens of missions aiming for the moon, coronavirus evolution to progress on quantum computers, these are the stories we think will shape 2022

A technician uses a multi-channel pipette dropper to dispense liquid material inside the Afrigen Biologics & Vaccines Ltd. laboratory facility in Cape Town, South Africa, on Monday, July 12, 2021. The??World ҹ1000 Organization announced it will establish its first-ever mRNA technology transfer hub in Cape Town in an agreement with??Afrigen??and the??Biovac Institute. Photographer: Dwayne Senior/Bloomberg via Getty Images

HELLO and welcome to the first issue of 2022 – and our predictions of what the year ahead holds. This magazine went to press as the omicron variant of the coronavirus was on the rise. As the pandemic enters its third calendar year, we look at the likely evolution of further variants and the need for yet more boosters in the next 12 months.

Thankfully, news is cheerier elsewhere. The mRNA technology used in the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna coronavirus vaccines has gone from experimental to essential in record time, and researchers are investigating whether it can be used to treat everything from cystic fibrosis to heart disease, with human trials potentially beginning in 2022. Sticking with medicine, a row about an Alzheimer’s drug approved in the US in 2021 is set to rumble on, as it isn’t clear whether the medicine is tackling the right target.

We also have some really big science projects to look forward to. The Large Hadron Collider has spent the pandemic in a coincidental lockdown, but comes out of a three-year upgrade ready to push forward the frontiers of theoretical physics.

“The COP15 summit in China is a chance for world leaders to align biodiversity and climate goals”

Speaking of frontiers, if all goes to plan, a veritable fleet of spacecraft are headed to the moon, with around a dozen probe launches planned. The European and Russian space agencies are also partnering on a mission to look for life on Mars.

One of the big stories from 2021 (besides the pandemic, of course) was the COP26 climate summit, held in November in Glasgow, UK. This April, there is a sequel of sorts: the COP15 biodiversity summit in Kunming, China, which was originally due to take place in 2020, but has been repeatedly postponed due to, well, you guessed it. Assuming the meeting goes ahead, it is a chance for world leaders to align biodiversity and climate goals, pledging to preserve fragile ecosystems.

Finally, there are the long shots. Progress on both quantum computers and electrical supergrids is expected to gather pace in 2022, with some even talking up the prospect of a quantum device that can actually perform useful tasks. It is unlikely, but then who knows? As the past few years have shown, predicting the future is a mug’s game.