Gaia Vince (Allen Lane)
GAIA VINCE is something of a star in climate science writing. Her debut, Adventures in the Anthropocene, was a compelling blend of climate science reporting and travelogue. Transcendence, her second book, sought to explain human evolution in ambitious 鈥渂ig history鈥� terms 鈥� think Yuval Noah Harari meets Matt Ridley.
Her latest, Nomad Century: How to survive the climate upheaval, offers more big history, though it tackles the future. Vince predicts a world where a changing climate will transform the distribution of Earth鈥檚 population within the lifetimes of her children. A rise of 4掳C by 2100, she argues, is 鈥渟omewhere between definitely possible and reasonably likely鈥� 鈥� certainly, she says, 鈥渓ikely enough to plan for鈥�.
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Vince鈥檚 focus isn鈥檛 on climate change, though, but on how people will respond to it. Drawing on research, think-tank studies and a fair few assumptions, many of them reasonable, she warns that average heating of between 3掳C and 4掳C would trigger the creation of billions of climate refugees.
She tries to reframe this as a positive. Migration has been the source of humanity鈥檚 success in the past, she argues; a 鈥渘omadic soul鈥� apparently 鈥減erches inside us all鈥�. Migration will also benefit the economies of the countries of destination and, through remittances, those of origin.
To succeed, we just need to acquire a 鈥減an-species identity鈥� 鈥� and to organise, says Vince. She envisions a UN body that will compulsorily purchase vast areas of land in Russia, Canada and Scandinavia, build prefab megacities and compel states to accept set numbers of migrants, who will undertake (voluntarily?) a form of national service and become citizens of the UN.
She suggests that China鈥檚 control of internal migration by means of its could be a model. She admits this was 鈥渃ontroversial鈥� but, in her view, it has shown that it is 鈥減ossible to create large migrant cities rapidly鈥� while avoiding the creation of large slums.
There is nothing wrong with having a plan, but it seems people will have to abandon a fair amount of their democratic freedoms to adopt Vince鈥檚. What鈥檚 more any plan has to be built on solid foundations, and some of the underpinnings here look a bit wobbly.
Vince asserts, for instance, that the collapse of multiple Bronze Age civilisations 3200 years ago was the result of 鈥渃limate chaos鈥� and drought. This striking hypothesis has been put forward in recent years, but it is far from established. To pick another example, also from a hypothesis awaiting more evidence: did an individual鈥檚 nationality really have 鈥渓ittle political meaning鈥� before the end of the 18th century?
In details such as these, as well as in her overall vision of the future, Vince鈥檚 approach can seem too broad-brush and too sure. Climate scientists have learned, painfully, to be careful about communicating uncertainty. But then this is only partly a science book: it is more of a futurist vision yoked to Vince鈥檚 own manifesto, which advocates tightly controlled migration, geoengineering and if not global government, then unprecedentedly close global cooperation.
Vince is aiming for compassionate realism, but some of her proposals could play into the hands of those who say that the 鈥済reen agenda鈥� is a Trojan horse for totalitarianism. I suspect Vince would say that she is just provoking thought and debate, and this she absolutely does.
Climate refugees are on the move already. The question, she says, 鈥渋s whether they will be helped, or whether the rest of the world will stand by and watch them die鈥�.
James McConnachie is a writer and editor based in Hampshire, UK
